Final: Defend a number
One change to one constant in the specimen, defended in seven parts in under ten minutes.
Due: 28 May 2027 · Weight: 35%
The brief#
Change one number in Close Quarters. Convince a panel who have spent a semester learning to distrust numbers.
The largest share of the mark goes to part six: where your instrument could be lying. Showing that a change worked is the easy half. Showing that your measurement would have told you if it had not worked is the half this course exists to teach.
A defence of “I changed nothing, and here is why the current value is right” is allowed and is harder than it sounds.
What the marks look like#
| Band | What the ten minutes do |
|---|---|
| HD | Part six is a demonstration: the instrument is shown telling two things apart that are closer together than the change being claimed. Results for players who differ by more than the noise. What was felt in play is reported even where it disagrees. |
| D to Cr | All seven parts, in order, inside the time. Part six is an assurance and not a demonstration. |
| P | “It feels better now” with numbers beside it, one kind of player, or a change no bigger than a second set of seeds would produce. |
The course’s own worked change is set out in the week 12 tutorial. It would land in the middle band: it shows the change holds on a second set of seeds, and it never shows the instrument telling apart two things that close.
What you submit#
A recording of no more than ten minutes, your fork, and the quiz sheets you got back marked, weeks 1 to 11. Week 12’s will not be back in time, and the teaching team already has it. The panel is three classmates and one member of the teaching team; they watch the recording and put their questions to you in person the week after.
The seven parts are the ones listed in week 12: the prediction, the instrument, the result, what you took away, who tried to break it, where the instrument could be lying, and what you felt.
How the four pieces fit#
Assignment 1 produces a curve. Assignment 2 picks a point on it and checks the blast radius. The quizzes record everything in between. The defence is the point, the radius and the record, said out loud.
The spec
What has to be in it. The marker goes down this list before reading anything else, and every line is something a classmate could check without asking you.
- one constant, its old value and its new value
- the seven parts from week twelve, each present and in order
- wins out of 51 and median survival before and after, for at least two kinds of player
- every quoted number traceable to a quiz answer or a reproducible command
How it is marked
| Criterion | Weight |
|---|---|
| All seven parts of a defence present, in order, inside ten minutes | 20% |
| The instrument could have said no, and you show how you know | 30% |
| Results for more than one kind of player | 20% |
| What you felt when you played it, and whether it agrees with the numbers | 15% |
| Answers to questions | 15% |