# Site

## Pages

- [Page not found](https://comp4020-agentic-coding-studio.github.io/comp4020-ass2-baizhenh884-dev/404/): That page doesn't exist, or it has moved since you last looked
- [Assessment](https://comp4020-agentic-coding-studio.github.io/comp4020-ass2-baizhenh884-dev/assessments/): Every piece of graded work in the course, what it is worth, and when it is due.
- [Calibration Diary](https://comp4020-agentic-coding-studio.github.io/comp4020-ass2-baizhenh884-dev/assessments/calibration-diary/): A semester-long record of ranges committed before you knew the answer, audited at the end for pattern rather than for how often you were right
- [Client Estimate & Estimate Court](https://comp4020-agentic-coding-studio.github.io/comp4020-ass2-baizhenh884-dev/assessments/client-estimate-court/): One real, already-settled target shared by the whole cohort, and a live cross-examination of the estimate you built to answer it
- [Lectures](https://comp4020-agentic-coding-studio.github.io/comp4020-ass2-baizhenh884-dev/lectures/): What is covered, week by week, and which topics each lecture draws on.
- [The digits are a claim you did not make](https://comp4020-agentic-coding-studio.github.io/comp4020-ass2-baizhenh884-dev/lectures/week-01/): Why written precision overstates what is known, and why the first question in any estimate is what the decision needs
- [A number is a chain, not a guess](https://comp4020-agentic-coding-studio.github.io/comp4020-ass2-baizhenh884-dev/lectures/week-02/): Why breaking a quantity into parts beats guessing it whole, and why defining the target is part of the estimate rather than a preliminary to it
- [The assumption you didn’t notice you made](https://comp4020-agentic-coding-studio.github.io/comp4020-ass2-baizhenh884-dev/lectures/week-03/): Why an estimate’s fragility concentrates in a few inputs, why people audit the wrong ones, and why hindsight makes this look easier than it was
- [A range says more than a number](https://comp4020-agentic-coding-studio.github.io/comp4020-ass2-baizhenh884-dev/lectures/week-04/): What a point estimate hides, why a national agency publishes its uncertainty on purpose, and how to choose a width honestly
- [Measured well, about something else](https://comp4020-agentic-coding-studio.github.io/comp4020-ass2-baizhenh884-dev/lectures/week-05/): Why most evidence is borrowed, the three ways a proxy fails, and why a proxy relationship can decay without anybody noticing
- [Disagreement is information](https://comp4020-agentic-coding-studio.github.io/comp4020-ass2-baizhenh884-dev/lectures/week-06/): Why splitting the difference destroys evidence, the small set of axes real disagreements sit on, and why nobody warns you at the moment you need it
- [Revision, and its imitation](https://comp4020-agentic-coding-studio.github.io/comp4020-ass2-baizhenh884-dev/lectures/week-07/): How pressure actually arrives, the test that separates an honest change from a concession, and why the defences have to be built early
- [What your estimates have in common](https://comp4020-agentic-coding-studio.github.io/comp4020-ass2-baizhenh884-dev/lectures/week-08/): The single mechanism that makes combining estimates work, what happens when it is absent, and why agreement is not evidence
- [Accurate on average is not the same question](https://comp4020-agentic-coding-studio.github.io/comp4020-ass2-baizhenh884-dev/lectures/week-09/): Why expected accuracy stops being the point once an estimate gets acted on, and the two questions the rest of the course has kept merged
- [The one thing forecasting adds](https://comp4020-agentic-coding-studio.github.io/comp4020-ass2-baizhenh884-dev/lectures/week-10/): Why a claim about the future needs no new machinery beyond what you already have, and the one structural difference that changes everything
- [What prose cannot force you to say](https://comp4020-agentic-coding-studio.github.io/comp4020-ass2-baizhenh884-dev/lectures/week-11/): Why a written justification can hide exactly the weakness a live question exposes in seconds, and what the Court is actually testing for
- [One miss tells you nothing. Fifteen might.](https://comp4020-agentic-coding-studio.github.io/comp4020-ass2-baizhenh884-dev/lectures/week-12/): Why no single estimate can reveal whether you are a good estimator, and what an accumulated, precommitted record can show instead
- [People](https://comp4020-agentic-coding-studio.github.io/comp4020-ass2-baizhenh884-dev/people/): Who teaches the course, and how to reach them.
- [Anika Solberg](https://comp4020-agentic-coding-studio.github.io/comp4020-ass2-baizhenh884-dev/people/anika-solberg/): Tutor running Tutorial T2, one of the four weekly timeslots.
- [Elena Marsh](https://comp4020-agentic-coding-studio.github.io/comp4020-ass2-baizhenh884-dev/people/elena-marsh/): The course convenor, responsible for the weekly programme and every lecture.
- [Femi Adeyemi](https://comp4020-agentic-coding-studio.github.io/comp4020-ass2-baizhenh884-dev/people/femi-adeyemi/): Tutor running Tutorial T3, one of the four weekly timeslots.
- [Jonah Petrescu](https://comp4020-agentic-coding-studio.github.io/comp4020-ass2-baizhenh884-dev/people/jonah-petrescu/): Tutor running two of the four weekly tutorial timeslots, T1 and T4.
- [Policies and support](https://comp4020-agentic-coding-studio.github.io/comp4020-ass2-baizhenh884-dev/policies/): The course-wide rules for late work, extensions, academic integrity and getting help.
- [The Right Number of Digits](https://comp4020-agentic-coding-studio.github.io/comp4020-ass2-baizhenh884-dev/sessions/01-the-right-number-of-digits/): The first session — a published population figure resolved to the last person, and the four different questions its digits invite you to confuse
- [Taking It Apart](https://comp4020-agentic-coding-studio.github.io/comp4020-ass2-baizhenh884-dev/sessions/02-taking-it-apart/): The one week you build a number out of nothing — and then discover that your number and the official one were counting different things
- [Naming Your Assumptions](https://comp4020-agentic-coding-studio.github.io/comp4020-ass2-baizhenh884-dev/sessions/03-naming-your-assumptions/): A case file rather than an exercise — one 1957 estimate, one 1973 outcome, and the question of which assumption was holding the first one up
- [A Number With a Shape](https://comp4020-agentic-coding-studio.github.io/comp4020-ass2-baizhenh884-dev/sessions/04-a-number-with-a-shape/): A national agency publishes its uncertainty on purpose, in a grammar you can borrow — two numbers, a percentage, and a statement of what each one means
- [Borrowed Numbers](https://comp4020-agentic-coding-studio.github.io/comp4020-ass2-baizhenh884-dev/sessions/05-borrowed-numbers/): Almost every number you will use was collected to answer somebody else’s question — today you write down what stands between their question and yours
- [Conflicting Evidence](https://comp4020-agentic-coding-studio.github.io/comp4020-ass2-baizhenh884-dev/sessions/06-conflicting-evidence/): Two Australian agencies count homelessness and get different answers — the work is diagnosing which question each of them answered
- [The Number Someone Wants](https://comp4020-agentic-coding-studio.github.io/comp4020-ass2-baizhenh884-dev/sessions/07-the-number-someone-wants/): A real business case that came out below one, an evaluation that says exactly where the pressure went, and an hour spent finding out what you would have done
- [Ask the Room](https://comp4020-agentic-coding-studio.github.io/comp4020-ass2-baizhenh884-dev/sessions/08-ask-the-room/): Two rounds of estimates from the same people under two different protocols, and a national polling failure that has the same shape as the second round
- [Who Carries the Cost](https://comp4020-agentic-coding-studio.github.io/comp4020-ass2-baizhenh884-dev/sessions/09-who-carries-the-cost/): A debt-recovery scheme acted on an estimate at scale, and the question that outlasts whether the estimate itself was any good — who pays when it is wrong
- [A Number About Tomorrow](https://comp4020-agentic-coding-studio.github.io/comp4020-ass2-baizhenh884-dev/sessions/10-a-number-about-tomorrow/): Every target so far already existed. Today's does not — a dated commitment from the Reserve Bank, what happened instead, and a forecast you seal shut
- [Estimate Court](https://comp4020-agentic-coding-studio.github.io/comp4020-ass2-baizhenh884-dev/sessions/11-estimate-court/): The written estimate and its disclosure are already submitted. Today a panel reads them, asks one shared question, and follows up on whatever it likes
- [Your Own Track Record](https://comp4020-agentic-coding-studio.github.io/comp4020-ass2-baizhenh884-dev/sessions/12-your-own-track-record/): The whole semester's set of ranges, read together for the particular way you tend to be wrong — a shape no single estimate could ever have shown you