Week 12#
From evidence to a proposal#
Twelve Weeks, One Document#
Six moves a marker checks for#
- Problem
- Evidence (≥3 strands)
- Mechanism
- Intervention (one primary measure)
- Implementation (jurisdiction, approval, cost)
- Evaluation (process metric vs outcome metric)
A gap in any one of these is a gap a marker will find.
A reminder about the dataset#
This unit’s synthetic dataset is a teaching tool.
“In this teaching dataset…” — fine.
A real-world finding, or evidence for a real jurisdiction’s numbers — not fine.
Weak version (Kestrel Pass Road — fictional)#
“…fencing, an underpass, a rope bridge canopy crossing, dynamic LED warning signs, and a public awareness campaign… will dramatically reduce collisions…”
No site detail. No strand cited. Five measures bundled. No jurisdiction, no cost, no evaluation plan.
Fails nearly every one of the six moves, not just one.
Same road, improved — Problem + Evidence#
Kestrel Pass Road (fictional), 4.2km rural two-lane, NSW.
Physics (Week 4): higher speed → more collision energy — why speed belongs in the discussion. Not a severity prediction: real injury also depends on animal mass, impact geometry, vehicle structure.
Ecology: continuous scrub, no break — a clue worth investigating, not proof this site has high crossing demand. Needs a movement survey.
Engineering: Rytwinski et al. (2016) — fencing+crossing = 83% reduction; roadside reflectors ≈1%; crossings without fencing = no detectable effect.
Improved — Mechanism + Intervention#
Mechanism: fencing excludes animals from the carriageway; crossing structure preserves the movement route. Full-length fencing reduces the Week 7 end-of-fence problem — it doesn’t eliminate it. Both endpoints still need their own animal-movement/collision-risk check.
Intervention: exclusion fencing, full length, plus one crossing structure. One primary measure. Midpoint is a candidate site pending survey, terrain and engineering checks — not confirmed.
Improved — Implementation + Evaluation#
Illustrative only, reusing Week 7’s fictional assumptions — not a real NSW quote: $756,000 initial, $25,200 annual.
Approval authority depends on road classification (TfNSW vs council) — to be confirmed. Vegetation/fencing work may trigger an environmental or threatened-species check — to be confirmed.
Process metric: crossing-structure usage (camera trap). Outcome metric: exposure-adjusted collision rate, pre/post, Week 3 method — not a raw count.
An unanticipated question?#
“My proposal doesn’t test that — here’s what would be needed to find out.”
Stronger than a confident guess that oversteps your evidence.
What today’s session does and doesn’t do#
Talk it through with peers. Get feedback.
No separate grade. Marking is holistic, against your written proposal, by the real deadline — 28 May 2027, 12:00.